FREIGHT TRANSPORT TRENDS AND FORECASTS TO 2010


The Canadian Transportation System is a complex network of transportation routes and modes competing to transport commodities flowing between various North American and overseas supply and demand centres. The amount and direction of commodities flowing through this network is influenced by a multitude of interrelated economic, technological, political and institutional factors, at domestic and global levels. By identifying the supply and demand centre(s) for each commodity and then determining the impact of domestic and global factors on its supply, demand and modal choice, the process of analysing and forecasting commodity flows through alternative routes/modes is greatly enhanced and its credibility increased.

In a rapidly changing competitive transportation environment efficient freight traffic data and forecasts are vital for strategic planning and development. Analysis of the present and future behaviour of commodity flows requires quick examination and interpretation of a large amount of information before any sound decision can be made.

In 1995, Transport Canada commissioned TAF Consultants to conduct a comprehensive freight flow forecasts consistent with their needs and requirements. The report analyses trends in marines, rail and truck traffic and provides forecasts to 2010. Each commodity is analyzed separately, and the applied forecasting methodology depends on the characteristic of the commodity under study.

To see the full report go to Transport Canada Web Site:
Freight Transport Trends and Forecasts to 2010.


CONTENTS

ECONOMIC AND FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

COMMODITY FLOW FORECASTS

Grains
Coal and Coke
Iron Ore
Fertilizer Materials
Non-Ferrous Metals
Salt
Alumina and Bauxite
Construction Materials
Forest Products
Petroleum Products
Motor Vehicles and Parts
Containers and Trailers
Other Commodities

FREIGHT FORECASTS

All Modes

Marine
Rail
Trucking


Copyright 1997 TAF Consultants™. All rights reserved.
Information in this document is secured from sources believed reliable and due care is taken in preparation, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this paper are not necessarily the opinions TAF Consultants. Other products and companies referred to herein are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies or mark holders.
Revised: March 05, 1999